Saeed Moshiri; Arian Daneshmand; Bahar Niazi
Abstract
The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) suggests that environmental quality improves with income after the economy passes an income threshold. Many studies have examined the EKC but the results are mixed. This study Investigates how international trade has affected the EKC’s position. The study ...
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The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) suggests that environmental quality improves with income after the economy passes an income threshold. Many studies have examined the EKC but the results are mixed. This study Investigates how international trade has affected the EKC’s position. The study uses the ecological footprint, as an indicator of environmental degradation, in 149 countries divided into four income groups for the period 1980-2014. From the panel model estimations, the results confirm an inverted U-shape relationship between the ecological footprint and income. Furthermore, they indicate that trade has altered the position of the EKC, in the entire sample. However, the results vary across income groups. Specifically, the EKC has been shifted by trade upwards in upper-income boundaries. The lower-income countries have not reached the income threshold suggested by the EKC and trade impact on the position of the EKC has not been significant. In this case, it can be inferred that trade worsens environmental degradation.
Saeed Moshiri; Maryam Parsa; Liela Darougar
Abstract
As a general-purpose technology, information and communication technology (ICT) leads to increasing productivity and economic growth in different sectors. Iran, as a semi-industrialized developing economy, has recently made relatively high level of investment on ICT in different sectors of the economy. ...
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As a general-purpose technology, information and communication technology (ICT) leads to increasing productivity and economic growth in different sectors. Iran, as a semi-industrialized developing economy, has recently made relatively high level of investment on ICT in different sectors of the economy. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between ICT sector and other sectors of the economy using an input-output table. We construct an input-output table with 37 sectors including ICT sector, using the updated IO table for year 2010. ICT goods production comprises 1.8 percent of total goods production and ICT service is 1.32 percent of the total service production. The results show that one unit increase in final demand for information technology (IT) products will increase total output by 1.63 units and one unit increase in final demand for communication technology (CT) products will increase total output by 2.18 units. The greatest impact of ICT in manufacturing sectors will be respectively in food and beverage, basic metal, and chemical products, and in the services sector in the wholesale, retail sale, financial intermediates, and real estate services. We also calculate the Average Propagation Length (APL) of the changes in the ICT final demand. The results indicate that the average propagation length of the changes in the ICT final demand is 1 for the services sector and 2 for the manufacturing industries.
fatemeh abdolshah; Saeed Moshiri
Abstract
Because of prevalence of non-performing loans in Iranian banking sector, it is important to estimate the default probability of borrowers in order to effectively manage credit risk. This paper conducts stress testing for default probabilities in banking industry of Iran. We apply the credit portfolio ...
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Because of prevalence of non-performing loans in Iranian banking sector, it is important to estimate the default probability of borrowers in order to effectively manage credit risk. This paper conducts stress testing for default probabilities in banking industry of Iran. We apply the credit portfolio approach model developed by Wilson (1997) and analyze the impacts of various macroeconomic shocks on default rates of banks. In the constructed model, we first estimate the effects of macroeconomics variables on default rate. Then the dynamic relationship between selected macroeconomics variables is estimated by a VAR model. Residuals obtained in the two previous steps were used to construct the covariance matrix for system of equations. Finally, using the Monte-Carlo method, a path of default probabilities is simulated in a one-year horizon under different scenarios. We compare default rates under different stress scenarios with baseline scenario to identify the effects of different shocks. The results of simulation show that unemployment rate shock has been the most harmful factor for default probabilities, followed by exchange rates shock. A shock to GDP growth also affects default rates significantly. Inflation shock generates the least important effect on default rates, consistent with the insignificant coefficient of inflation rate in the estimated default probability equation. A simultaneous shock to all macroeconomic variables has higher impact on the default rates in lower tails than upper tails. The results also show the effects of shocks decrease with the passage of time.
Saeed Moshiri; Mohammad Nadali
Volume 13, Issue 48 , April 2013, , Pages 1-27
Abstract
The banking structure in Iran has undergone dramatic changes for the past three decades going from a mixed private-public banking system to a complete state-owned banking system. Although banking crisis such as bank panic and bank run has never been observed in Iran, the money market pressure index ...
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The banking structure in Iran has undergone dramatic changes for the past three decades going from a mixed private-public banking system to a complete state-owned banking system. Although banking crisis such as bank panic and bank run has never been observed in Iran, the money market pressure index shows that the banking system has experienced crisis in various times. In this paper, we use the banking crisis data derived by Moshiri and Nadali (2010) to estimate the determinants of the banking crisis in Iran, using a Logit model for the period 1971-2008. The estimation results show that inflation, short term interest rate, and the ratio of domestic credit to private sector to GDP are the main factors affecting banking crisis in Iran. Moreover, the results indicate that the relationship between inflation rate and the banking crisis is U shape. The exchange rate does not have a significant effect on the banking crisis as the Iranian banking system is not heavily involved in the international financial markets and is not strongly connected to the international banking system.
